Energy Transition and the Transport Sector – Assessing the Impact of European and National Policies on Future Drive Technology Mixes, Energy Use, and Emission Pathways

The transport sector is one of the largest energy consumers and plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change. With recent cost reductions for battery electric vehicles, a fundamental transformation of the predominant drive technologies towards low-carbon technologies seems possible. However, there is great uncertainty about the speed and outcome of the transition, since a variety of drive technologies still compete for low-carbon road mobility and transport and with increasing modal shifts towards rail. To address this challenge, we will develop a novel model for global projections of technology mixes for
mobility and transport until 2040. Embedding a probabilistic discrete choice model within a system-dynamic model architecture, we will consider feedbacks between technology deployment, cost improvement and further factors, and thus contribute to policy advice.

Specifically, this project will address uncertainty in freight transport decarbonization. As evidenced by increasing global demand for goods and services, the freight sector represents a critical analysis point for emissions reduction and an anticipated option for electrification given the likely definitive trend towards total electrification in the passenger transport sector. Entry barriers for alternative fuel freight vehicles in the market, however, include high cost of infrastructure and high capital investment as the technologies required to power long-range road transport, for instance, are not yet cost effective. The developed model will therefore address the positive economic feedback effects of technological development and deployment but perhaps more importantly, identify policy intervention points that would effectively assist a shift from conventional to alternative fuel drive-train technologies. In
collaborating with the Swiss Energy Foundation (SES), avenues and best practices for policy intervention will be readily experienced and discussed first-hand by the researcher during the secondment and can thus be incorporated in the model architecture and assessment.

Finally, upon completion, quantitative results as well as the model itself will be open sourced for future researchers to build upon and for other relevant industry stakeholders to reference.

This fellowship was hosted by the Energy Science Center.